Climate Change: IPCC finally acknowledges its `Himalayan Blunder’ says its glacier melt rate was `erroneous’!

Amidst the doomsday scenario presented by the UN panel on climate change there is one silver lining, at least the glaciers in the Himalayas are not disappearing for at least a couple of centuries! The billion plus people who inhabit the fertile flood plains of the Ganga, Indus and Brahmaputra can breathe easy that the rivers which nurture them are not drying up anytime soon. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had earlier asserted that the glaciers in the high Himalayas also dubbed the `third pole’ would disappear by 2035. Now in the latest report released in Yokohama, Japan on March 31, 2014 it says “it is virtually certain that these projections [the current glacier melt rates] are more reliable than an earlier ERRONEOUS assessment of complete disappearance by 2035.” What a climb down from the highly alarmist situation that the Himalayan glaciers would melt in another 11 years to a point where it acknowledges they will be around much more than our lifetimes! I am not a climate change denialist but am certainly against the trumpeting of exaggerated claims many a times made only on the basis of extrapolations of mathematical models. The 2007 error had badly tarnished the reputation of the Nobel Peace Prize winning IPCC. Now Chris Field the lead scientist for yesterday’s report acknowledges that the Himalayan glacier error was `really serious’. According to the French news agency the AFP, in the massive Fifth Assessment Report on climate impacts the IPCC said Himalayan glaciers would shrink by 45 percent by 2100, if Earth's average surface temperature rose by 1.8 degrees Celsius. Under a far warmer scenario of 3.7 C, the reduction would be 68 percent. Field says `we've tried to double check and triple check and quadruple check everything in this report’. In its 2007 or the last assessment the IPCC had committed what came to be known as the `Himalayan Blunder or Glacier-gate’ when it asserted that Himalayan glaciers “are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.” It had then relied on un-published grey literature. In 2009, against odds I had pursued an investigation that the UN panel on climate change had got its facts very wrong on the state of glaciers in the Himalayas. That was a heady time for climate change, all eyes were on the Copenhagen climate summit and there I was, researching a story that went totally against the prevailing tide. Believe me it was tough, very tough to even conceive a story that would question the claims of that `holy cow’ of climate change, the IPCC. I had heard subdued murmurs since 2007 that IPCC’s Himalayan glacier claim was absurd, but like glaciers, glaciologists also move slowly in publishing their results and it was the explosive Indian government report that gave me the right peg to hang the story, I had been researching for almost two years! I was attacked for having written what we did in 2009 and the chairman of the IPCC Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri even dubbed the glacier report as `voodoo science’. In 2009 then India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh released a study on Himalayan glaciers that suggested that they may be not melting as much due to global warming as it was widely feared. Jairam accused the IPCC of being "alarmist" he told Science, “we don’t need to write the epitaph for the glaciers, but we need a concentrated scientific and policy focus on the Himalayan ecosystem since the truth is incredibly complex.” Dr Pachauri dismissed the Indian government report prepared by seasoned glaciologist V K Raina as "voodoo science" and said the IPCC was a "sober body" whose work was verified by governments. Subsequently as part of the major reform process the IPCC `strengthened’ its procedures and was even subjected to an extended probe by the Inter Academy Council from Netherlands. It was not easy and as a journalist I was attacked for ehat I had written. Richard Stone, then Asia Editor for Science said in 2010 `in the weeks that followed, Pallava’s coverage did indeed draw criticism. IPCC chair Rajendra K. Pachauri expressed `disappointment’, while far less polite remarks came from scientists who seemed to believe that the IPCC report was sacrosanct. Pallava has said that all of his skills as a journalist were tested, but in fact he never flinched.’ As a mark of recognition the story fetched me what some dub as the `Oscar of Science Journalism’, the prestigious Perlman Award for 2010 given by the highly regarded American Geophysical Union (AGU). The report of the Perlman Award selection committee said it “applauds Bagla's articles for addressing "a very serious issue in the earth sciences. His articles serve as a reminder to journalists to question sources, to think harder about the agendas and ideas of those people about whom they are reporting, and to stop the steamroller of opinions or ideas when the facts just don't back them up. Although Bagla's articles reveal embarrassing foibles of scientists, ultimately they also illustrate science's ability to self-correct." I was honoured for two articles. “No sign yet of Himalayan meltdown, Indian report finds,” published in Science, which explored the dissent among glaciologists about a prediction that Himalayan glaciers would imminently disappear. “Himalayan glaciers melting deadline ‘a mistake,’” published by BBC News, that investigated the possibility that the controversial prediction resulted from a typographical error. Yet all was not lost as there is a huge silver lining in all this heartburn since in less than 10 weeks after we wrote about the exaggerated melt rate in 2009, the IPCC formally gave its now famous and till date only `regret’. Now five years later it has finally accepted that it was an `erroneous’ assertion. All internal procedures failed at IPCC and it was left to a journalist to show a mirror to this august body of 2500 of the world’s best climate scientists. Self-correction is such an important part of practicing good science. Pallava Bagla

Polio battle won, war far from over for India! A tale of two assassinations and lessons from past mistakes

If only the Indian government had heeded advice given by seasoned Indian polio researchers, it is foreseeable that the country’s war against polio could have been won long ago, and more significantly, astounding as it may sound, but 3 million children could have been saved from being crippled for life. A walk down memory lane also reveals that the twin assassinations of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi pushed polio eradication back by decades. Even as we celebrate the success of the possible elimination of polio from India, a quick reality check: did the country fail its own people by not heeding to sound Indian advice, relying instead on overseas advisors unfamiliar with the ground realities of India? The hard-fought battle against polio has almost been won by India and on March 27, 2014 the World Health Organisation (WHO) finally `certified’ India and the South-East Asian region to be `polio free’. Indeed a great landmark since after small pox and Guinea worm this would be the third human disease whose end is near in India. The disease burden was astounding, studies in India in the 1980s suggests that in 1978 every day some 500 children or almost 200,000 children were being infected with polio annually and soon when the world is free from polio every year some $ 2 billion could be saved. Participating in the celebration on India’s victory over polio Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on February 11, 2014 rightfully said `this is indeed a historic day, it is a day that we have worked for tirelessly … as we celebrate three years without polio’. The road ahead is still bumpy. Experts like Dr Nata Menabde, WHO Representative in India warn `this progress in polio eradication cannot afford to pause and we cannot rest on our laurels’. Also, unbelievable as it may sound, but the main weapon against polio in India, the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), itself poses one of the biggest hurdles in the `end game’. There are also many lessons to be learnt from the past, from the burden of delayed implementation of effective strategies to how the sound advice given by Indian experts was consistently disregarded by the Indian government. These are painful lessons, for they led to the unfortunate and needless paralysis of some 3 million children due to polio. All this led to over a decade’s setback in polio elimination. Interestingly the twin assassinations of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and a few years later of Rajiv Gandhi also became a severe impediment in tackling this crippling disease. The immediate battle against polio has been won but the war is far from over as the `endgame’ against polio is going to be tough. India’s neighbours like Pakistan and Afghanistan still harbour the wild polio virus and this deadly `tiny terrorist’ could well sneak in across the heavily armed borders. Ill-advised plans On advice from global experts in 1978 Indian government chose to use OPV as the preferred weapon to tackle polio, choosing it over the more effective but relatively more expensive Injectable Polio Vaccine (IPV). Pushpa Mitra Bhargava, founder director of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad recalls that ` developing countries were taken for a ride as there was clear serological evidence to suggest OPV was not as effective as IPV’, but then as he says at that time WHO advised `poor’ developing countries to use the cheaper OPV while it advised the developed nations to pursue the IPV route to try and eliminate polio from their soils. Even as recently as the 1980s Indian vaccine experts like T. Jacob John at the Christian Medical College, Vellore had raised the red flag against the use of OPV as a preferred weapon: although much easier to administer, OPV has a serious flaw, it is manufactured using a form of the `live polio virus’ whose potency to cause polio has been blunted, nevertheless there are rare cases in which the virus regains its virulence and starts paralysing children. Such cases are not counted since they are taken as adverse reaction to the vaccine. The vaccine virus can also regain its infectivity and virulence and even cause polio outbreaks. In effect the cure becomes the cause for the disease burden. WHO statistics reveal that in the last 14 years 20 outbreaks of polio associated directly with the polio vaccine regaining infectivity have occurred in 20 countries and some 655 individuals have contracted polio through this route. If this doesn’t erode the credibility of the vaccine in the eyes of mothers, it would be a surprise. Experts say this was an `acceptable’ risk since in all 10 billion doses of the vaccine were given in this same 14 year period. But the situation would get very complicated soon when the OPV is to be withdrawn as part of WHO’s `end game’ strategy at that point experts fear there could be hordes of children who may once again become infected with the vaccine derived viruses and be vulnerable to paralysis. In this last lap the use of the OPV is like having the tiger by its tail. Writing an anguished editorial in the highly regarded Current Science journal recently John said `for three decades policy-makers ignored Indian science on polio – allowing over 3 million children paralysed unnecessarily and delaying polio elimination by 11 years.’ The problem arose as `decisions were made on the basis of opinion fit for western nations’ explains John suggesting that `in case of polio they [the government] made bad mistakes’ since Indian research studies in the 1970s had established `why western tactics would fail’. The Indian government instead relied on foreign advisors which compounded the problem. In the early part of this decade India faced a peculiar problem of children having been administered more than 10 doses of the oral polio vaccine still coming down with polio. It was soon deciphered that the OPV itself was the problem as it was not as effective since this three in one combination called a trivalent vaccine was trying to tackle simultaneously three strains of the polio virus Type 1, 2, & 3. In 2005 based on old Indian research a more potent monovalent OPV that targets only type 1 and 3 was introduced and it immediately started yielding the desired results and the last wild polio case was detected on January 13, 2011 in West Bengal. Unfortunately the problem of polio is not going away anytime soon even after India is `certified polio free’ since clinically paralysis caused by the wild polio virus and the disease caused because of OPV regaining virulence in the environment are virtually indistinguishable and in 2013 four such cases occurred in India, where the vaccine had gone rogue. While polio occurring due to the vaccine virus in vaccinated children could be easily solved once OPV is withdrawn but the problem of the vaccine virus that becomes virulent in the transmission chains among children could become a huge problem since in the future when OPV is totally withdrawn children would not have the immunity against the virus, but hopefully by then the more expensive IPV would have made sufficient in-roads to provide immunity to the children of the future. Menabde does not hide her trepidation when she says `the polio end game strategy involves a switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine to bivalent oral polio vaccine and phased withdrawal of the oral polio vaccines from the program with the POSSIBLE introduction of inactivated [injectable] polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunisation schedule’. By 2015 it is hoped the more potent IPV would have become part of routine immunisation but here again lies a tale of missed Indian opportunities, and a lot of irony: India will now have to follow WHO directives and by force have to import the required IPV, since the country’s own indigenous capacity was forcefully shut down. Tale of two assassinations In 1983 the man who invented IPV, Jonas Salk, visited India and advised then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to introduce IPV, and by 1986 a combination of 4 vaccines (Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus plus IPV) was readied but it was suddenly withdrawn by the government the same year. It was in 1984 that Mrs Indira Gandhi was assassinated and John says ‘if she were alive in 1986, India would have routinely been using the combination vaccine’. It may be pertinent to note that three decades later as part of the `endgame strategy for polio’ the combination vaccine is again being dusted up! Another mishap occurred a few years later when Sam Pitroda was heading up the famous `technology missions’ in Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s tenure. After a great deal of effort by Pitroda, the Indian Vaccine Company Limited (IVICOL) was set up on the outskirts of New Delhi in 1988, costing some Rs 900 million. But then, in 1991, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated and in 1992 for reasons not so scientific the unit was hurriedly closed down. John says had Rajiv Gandhi `been alive we would have been using IPV on a large scale, but that was not to be … damage had been done’. Meanwhile the country celebrates a much-needed and long overdue success story of nearly vanquishing the dreaded polio virus -- in times when scandals are tumbling out dime a dozen. This success rests on the shoulders of nearly 2.3 million vaccinators (the Indian army is only a little over one million strong) who battled tremendous odds to vaccinate in every Pulse Polio round almost 170 million children (equivalent to about half the population of USA) in more than 240 million households spending some $ 3 billion in funding. But as John laments `while global experts are lauding India for its success and goading India towards the end game, we know that India could and should have led the developing world, since we had all the right evidence and ideas to go precisely through this route towards a world in which no child ever gets polio’. It seems global health politics triumphed over cold hard facts put forward by top class Indian researchers in the last century. So in the current election season will Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi learn some lessons from history on how to fight diseases the Indian way, especially as the country now begins its efforts to eradicate another big killer, measles that kills some 66,000 children annually? Missed opportunities, misplaced advice, overt reliance on global directives and several wrong decisions – chances are all will be forgotten as the battle to end this scourge is celebrated across the world. Pallava Bagla (Pallava Bagla is Science Editor for New Delhi Television and correspondent for SCIENCE. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at Pallava.bagla@gmail.com)

ISRO unveils space capsule that will fly Indian astronauts

ISRO unveils space capsule that will fly Indian astronauts Pallava Bagla After its Mars mission, India now aims to puts humans into space. The first steps towards flying Indian astronauts into space could be taken in weeks. The Indian astronaut capsule has been unveiled for the very first time. If all goes as per plan it will be tested in the first experimental flight of India's latest monster rocket, the Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle Mark III is likely to be tested as early as May or June from Sriharikota. The GSLV Mk-3 could see this astronaut module being flown into space for the very first time, but in a sub-orbital flight. In its first test flight no crew or any animals are likely to be flown. "Only re-entry technologies and flight dynamics will be tested and the capsule will be recovered 400-500 kilometers away from Port Blair in the Bay of Bengal," Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) chairman K Radhakrishnan told NDTV. ISRO has been dreaming of putting an Indian into space using an Indian rocket launched from India soil. ISRO has sought funding worth Rs. 12,500 crores from the government for the program. It says once the approval comes, an Indian astronaut can be flown in a low Earth orbit in about seven years from the time the approval comes from the government. When it happens, India's human space capsule could be sent on a seven day mission for two-three astronauts in a low Earth orbit of 300-400 kilometers above earth. Till date only Russia, USA and China have successfully flown astronauts into space with the latest entrant being China in 2003. The outer skeleton of Indian human space capsule has been fabricated by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bangalore and was handed over to ISRO which developed it. HAL says the first crew module will be further equipped with systems necessary for crew support, navigation, guidance and control systems by ISRO for experimentation in the forthcoming GSLV-MK3 launch. "HAL takes pride in the India's space programmes and our Aerospace Division has produced this Crew Module in a record time to meet the requirements of ISRO", said Dr RK Tyagi, Chairman, HAL. While the government has hesitated to clear a hefty bill of Rs. 12,500 crores as desired by ISRO for its human space flight program, but so that there are no delays in the development work the Indian government has already sanctioned Rs. 145 crores for the development of what it calls 'critical technologies'. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/isro-unveils-space-capsule-that-will-fly-indian-astronauts-483605

Tiny Israel sets its sight on the moon landing

At Jammu new science initiatives announced by PM Manmohan Singh as he prepares to hand over `baton’

At Jammu new science initiatives announced by PM Manmohan Singh as he prepares to hand over `baton’

New Delhi, February 3, 2014

Pallava Bagla

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh speaking at 101st session of the Indian Science Congress being held for the very first time in Jammu a part of the troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir, where some 8000 scientists have gathered for this annual event.

The Prime Minister highlighted some aspects in his speech: 

“To do science, someone must pay for it. We must increase our annual expenditure on science and technology to at least 2% of our GDP. This has to come from both government and industry. In countries such as South Korea, where a high percentage of the GDP goes to science, the contribution of Korean industry is indeed very significant. I am happy to say that our Department of Biotechnology has activated private public partnerships in R&D in biotechnology. I appeal to the corporate sector to join hands with the government in realizing the goals that we have set for more our nation.

A major research funding organization, the National Science and Engineering Research Board, has just started functioning. This Board is managed by scientists and it has simplified funding procedures. We expect much more from it in supporting individual scientists as well as groups of scientists in creating small units devoted to crucial sectors at the very frontiers of science.

India currently occupies an enviable position in the field of atomic energy and high-energy physics. Indian nuclear scientists are attracting global interest in their effort to develop a Fast Breeder Reactor. I expect the prototype under construction in Kalpakkam to be completed this year. It will be a great day for Indian science and technology because we will be one of the few countries in the world with leadership in a completely new area of nuclear technology that can contribute non-polluting electrical power.

I recognise and we all recognise that the Government must also focus on creating new opportunities for our bright and socially conscious scientists. To ensure food security and to improve land and water productivity, we have to launch a national drive for an ever-green revolution. This will test the ingenuity of our agricultural scientists. Climate-resilient agriculture and modern bio-technological tools hold great promise. Use of bio-technology has great potential to improve yields. While safety must be ensured, we should not succumb to unscientific prejudices against Bt. crops. Our government remains committed to promoting the use of these new technologies for agricultural development. I urge our scientific community to increase communication and engagement with society at large in explaining socially productive applications of technology alternatives and for improving the productivity of small and medium enterprises.

Our Government has invested in many areas to ensure that India remains at the cutting edge of science. I am happy to announce another National Mission on High Performance Computing with an outlay of Rs. 4500 crores. We are also considering establishment of a National Geographical Information System with an outlay of about Rs. 3000 crores. A National Mission on Teaching to enhance the esteem of our teachers is also being launched.

I am also happy to announce that India will partner the international scientific community in the establishment of some of the world’s major R&D projects. In the Gravitational Wave experiment, India intends to host the third detector. A Neutrino-based Observatory is proposed to be established in Tamil Nadu at a cost of about Rs 1450 crores. India is also joining the famous CERN institute as an associate member.

Before I close, I would like to stress on something that has troubled me for some time. I worry some time that science has not yet got its proper due in our value system. I would like science to be high in our value system so that our entire society provides both moral and material support for its development. This is not only necessary because our future depends on it, but also because instilling a scientific attitude and temper in our population is essential for developing a progressive, rational and humane society. I do hope that our scientists and educators will ponder seriously on how we can achieve this transformation in the mind set of our society.  This year, our Government selected Professor CNR Rao for the highest civilian award of Bharat Ratna. Let this be only the first step in creating an environment that gives birth to many more Bharat Ratnas in the field of Indian science. That is my wish that is my prayer.”  

God Particle almost revelaed

NDTV

Dated: July 4, 2012

God Particle Almost revealed

44 minutes of video on the special show


http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/india-decides-9/the-9-oclock-news-the-biggest-stories/238274

CERN scientists to reveal God Particle today?

From : NDTV

July 4, 2012

CERN scientists to reveal God Particle today?

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/cern-scientists-to-reveal-god-particle-today/238161